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Paper no. 141
PAKISTAN
ON EVE OF P.M.'S VISIT TO US
by B.Raman
MUSHARRAF: A POST OCT 12, 1999, PROFILE
* A plodder.
* A good listener.
* Very loyal to subordinates who are loyal to him.
* Encourages subordinates to speak out their mind freely & frankly.
* While continuing the ban on public political meetings & processions, has
allowed his critics to let out steam through the media.
* Corporate style of decision-making. All important
decisions taken inconsultation with Corps Commanders.
* Poor in analysis & judgement. A typical commando-- brave,
unyielding and unrelenting towards perceived adversaries and ready to be devious for
achieving his objective. A typical example of his deviousness in action was seen when he
forced the judiciary to take a new oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order. He
kept the Chief Justice of the Federal Supreme Court and some other Judges, who refused to
take the oath, confined to their houses, told the other judges that the Chief Justice had
already taken the new oath and made them do so. Only thereafter, did he release the Chief
Justice and the other non-cooperative Judges from their virtual house arrest.
* Before the coup, his social interactions largely limited
to fellow senior Army officers and that too to fellow commandos and Mohajirs. Very
limited social interactions with officers of the Air Force, the Navy and the Police and
the rest of the civilian bureaucracy.
* When he seized power on Oct.12, 1999, he hardly knew the
civilian bureaucracy. The civilians, serving or retired, on whom he relied initially were
either the dregs of the Zia regime or from amongst those who had incurred the wrath of
Nawaz Sharif.
* Insensitive to the feelings and ego of the civilian bureaucrats
and has antagonised them as a class through his system of military monitoring of the work
of the civilian bureaucracy. Consequently, the bureaucracy has been sulking and avoiding
giving him sound advice and correcting him, telling itself "it serves him
right." In his telecast after seizing power, he told his people: "You will not
see uniform except mine', but now there are military officers ----in civvies and not in
uniform---monitoring the work of every District Administration and every Government
Department in the provincial and Federal Secretariats, giving rise to suppressed
resentment. Senior civilian bureaucrats periodically called to appear before the
Corps Commanders to explain and justify their policies. In the Foreign Office, all files
to the Foreign Secretary on administrative and accounts matters are vetted by a Brigadier.
* Amenable to pressure from the Islamic political parties and
extremist organisations.
SOFT TO ISLAMIC PARTIES &
EXTREMIST ORGANISATIONS
The fear of the mosques, the madrasas and the bazaaris combining together against him has
been an important factor influencing his governance.
Under the pressure from the Islamic
parties, he has played down the urgency of signing the CTBT, assured them that the Turkish
system would not be one of the models to be considered by his Government for emulation of
the good features, went back on his announcement that he would introduce procedural
changes to prevent vexatious action by the police under the blasphemy law, issued an
ordinance to remove any doubts about the continued validity of the Islamic provisions of
the 1973 Constitution, particularly that relating to the declaration of the Ahamadiyas as
non-Muslims and excluding them from key posts in Government service, diluted action
against the madrasas training jehadists and rejected the recommendation of the Election
Commission for the restoration of the joint electorate system.
While claiming to have succeeded in persuading the Taliban to
close down some of the training camps of Pakistan-based terrorist groups in Afghan
territory, including one of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and another of the
Jaish-e-Mohammed of Maulana Masood Azhar, who was released by the Government of India on
December 31,1999, in response to the demand of the HUM hijackers of an IAC plane, he has
avoided any pressure on the Taliban on the bin Laden issue.
While expressing his determination to act against Islamic
sectarian elements spreading violence in Pakistan and against Arab extremists misusing
Pakistani hospitality for activities against their States of origin, he has ruled out any
action against groups active against the Indian security forces in Jammu & Kashmir, on
the ground that they are jehadists and not terrorists and that their actions are in
retaliation for the atrocities allegedly committed by the Indian security forces.
Having tasted success on these issues, the Islamic parties have
now stepped up pressure on him:
* To restore Friday as the weekly holiday instead of
Sunday.
* To withdraw his proposal for the reservation of a certain
number of the seats in the new local bodies to be set up next year for women. The Islamic
parties say this would "spread vulgarity in politics."
* To curb or ban the activities of non-governmental
organisations (NGOs) advocating women's rights, abolition of child labour, action against
honour killings and moderation of the blasphemy law.
* To reject the conditionalities of the IMF and to Islamise
the economy.
In the way he has dealt with the Islamic parties, two disturbing
traits of his have come to notice:
* While he has had no hesitation in confronting the mainstream
political parties and acting against them even at the risk of street violence, he has
repeatedly shown an unwillingness to confront the Islamic parties and allowed himself to
be cowed down by them into conceding their demands. Thus, one sees the Islamic parties
taking advantage of the disarray amongst the mainstream political parties and the
General's curbs on their activities to strengthen their street power and manoeuvring
ability.
* Whenever his colleagues in the Cabinet (Example: the
confrontation between Mr.Abdul Sattar, Foreign Minister, and Qazi Husain Ahmad, the Amir
of the Jamaat-e- Islami (JEI), on the CTBT issue) have come under vicious attack from the
Islamic parties for doing or saying what he wanted them to do or say, he has avoided
defending them in public and, instead, withdrawn into the background. The Islamic parties
called Mr.Sattar a traitor to Pakistan and the Ummah and a spokesman of the US
Administration; the General never once deplored this campaign and defended Mr.Sattar.
Abdul Malik Kasi, Minister for Religious Affairs, told the
"Washington Post" on June 22,2000:" The religious groups are not a threat
to this regime. Most of them want to co-operate with us because we are trying to get rid
of corruption. The Government cannot afford to rub the religious groups the wrong way. If
we hit them with a stick, they will hit us with a gun."
STYLE OF GOVERNANCE
Five-tier structure: The monitoring mechanism in the Districts
and Secretariats---the National Reconstruction Bureau--the National Security Council---the
Corps Commanders Conference--the Cabinet. All decisions in the Corps Commanders'
conference generally taken by consensus. Musharraf avoids forcing through decisions about
which the Corps Commanders have reservations.
MUSHARRAF'S KITCHEN CABINET
Musharraf has a small kitchen Cabinet consisting of the following
three, which vets all proposals before they go to the Cabinet or the Corps Commanders:
* Lt.Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, CO, 10 Corps, Rawalpindi, at the
time of the Coup and now DG, ISI. His friendship with Musharraf goes back to almost 31
years, when the two had served together in the same Artillery unit. In 1995, on the
appointment Lt.Gen.Ali Quli Khan as CO, 10 Corps, by Gen.Abul Waheed Kakkar, the then
COAS, Lt.Gen. Mahmood Ahmed, then a Major-Gen., took over from him as DGMI. He was
promoted as Lt.Gen. in June 1998, and posted by Gen. Jehangir Karamat, the then COAS, as
Commandant, National Defence College. On taking over as the COAS in October, 1998,
Gen.Musharraf brought him as CO 10 Corps. Posted, after the coup, as DG, ISI, vice
Lt.Gen.Ziauddin. There have recently been reports of differences between him and
Gen.Musharraf. It is alleged that since Lt.Gen. Mahmood Ahmed's visit to Washington after
Clinton's visit to Pakistan in March to meet George Tenet, Director, CIA, Gen.Musharraf
suspects him of trying to ingratiate himself with the Americans behind his back.
* Lt.Gen. Mohammad Aziz, the Chief of the General Staff
(CGS), in the GHQ. A Sudan from POK. The only Kashmiri among the present Lt.Gens and
reputed to be the leading Kashmir expert of the Pakistan Army and intelligence community.
Amongst the present Lt.Gens., he had spent the maximum number of years in the POK and the
Northern Areas as an Infantry Officer of the Punjab Regiment and as an officer of the
Special Services Group (SSG). His personal friendship with Gen.Musharraf dates back to the
days when they had served together in the SSG. He was No.2 in the ISI for three
years before 1999, supervising the proxy war in Kashmir and the pro-Taliban operations in
Afghanistan. In 1999 beginning, on his promotion as Lt.Gen., Gen. Musharraf brought him to
the GHQ as the CGS, even though, at that time, he was the juniormost Lt.Gen. and the
previous practice had been to appoint a senior, if not the seniormost, Lt.Gen. as
the CGS. In appreciation of his services in organising the coup on October 12,
Gen.Musharraf gave him additional charge of the set-up for monitoring the loyalty and work
of the civilian bureaucracy and also, concurrently, made him responsible for supervising
the work of the Administration in Punjab. Very close to the Islamic political parties and
extremist organisations and is reputed to be the Mullahs' General. Disliked by the
Americans, who regard him as the evil genius behind the activities of the Taliban and the
extremist organisations in Kashmir. Recently, there have been reports that
Musharraf has started distrusting him and wants to ease him out of the GHQ.
* Lt.Gen.(retd) Moinuddin Haider, Interior Minister, who
was recently inducted into the NSC. A Mohajir.Socially very close to Musharraf. In his
testimony before the Karachi court which tried him on the hijacking charge, Nawaz
Sharif said his troubles with Musharraf started from the day he removed Lt.Gen.Haider as
the Sindh Governor.
DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE
* Till now, Musharraf has been giving the impression that
he would stick to the three-year deadline set by the Supreme Court for the restoration of
an elected Government.
* His programme for the devolution of powers to the local
bodies and for partyless elections to them between December, 2000, and August, 2001, has
met with widespread criticism, not only from the mainstream political parties, but also
from the Islamic parties. Many have compared it to Ayub Khan's Basic Democracies.
Regardless of the criticism, he seems to be determined to go ahead with the plan.
* He has been holding discussions with a carefully-selected
cross-section of political leaders---from the mainstream as well as Islamic parties--- on
the political situation in the country. The objective of the discussions is not clear.
This seems to be essentially a tactical move to give an impression to critics at home and
abroad that he is not insensitive to their concerns about the need for an early
restoration of the political process.
* From the various statements made by him and his
lieutenants, it is apparent that his mind has been working along the following lines: (I).
To target Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto as individual leaders and make it impossible for
them to return to power through appropriate legislation debarring from politics persons
convicted of serious instances of corruption and misuse of office; (ii) At the same time,
not to target the PML and the PPP as political parties so long as they rid themselves of
their corrupt elements--he realises that if these parties are weakened beyond recovery,
the ultimate beneficiaries might be the Islamic and sectarian parties and organisations;
(iii). Through appropriate Constitutional amendments, to restore to the President the
power to dismiss the Prime Minister if the latter misuses his office and to guarantee to
the military a role in the governance of the country through the National Security Council
(NSC) or other mechanism, even after the restoration of democracy. His bottom-line seems
to be: Democracy will be ultimately restored, but on the military's terms and in colours
and at a pace to be determined by the military. He has arrogated to himself and the
military the right to determine which model would suit the country and the Armed Forces.
* There are signs of growing disenchantment in the country
with the military leadership in general and with his style of governance in particular.
The continuing economic difficulties, despite a slight improvement in the economic
situation mainly due to a rise in agricultural output except in respect of sugarcane, have
added to this disenchantment.
* After an initial improvement immediately after he seized
power, the law and order situation has again started deteriorating---with the revival of
sectarian clashes and acts of terrorism in different parts of the country by unidentified
groups. The Army is particularly concerned over the recent explosions in Balochistan,
which indicate that the Balochistan Liberation Army, which had been effectively suppressed
by Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s, has been rearing its head again. There have also
been reports of violent clashes in the POK between the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and the
Jaish-e-Mohammed of Maulana Masood Azhar and of differences in the military leadership as
to how to deal with the situation. Lt.Gen.Haider, the Interior Minister, has reportedly
been advocating a stronger line against the organisations involved in the violence,
whereas Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz seems to be in favour of a soft line. Faced with
contradictory advice, Musharraf's policy has been characterised by
vacillations---initially supporting Haider's strong line and then retreating when the
extremist organisations react violently. It is becoming increasingly doubtful whether he
would be able to carry out his proclaimed policy of deweaponisation of the Pakistani
society and making the madrasas the producers of pious, but employable, technically
competent students and not jehadist mercenaries. Like his political predecessors,
Musharraf has started concealing his inability to control the slide in the law and order
situation by blaming India for it.
* The country is yet to recover from the widespread public
disenchantment with the mainstream political parties because of the misdeeds of Benazir
Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. As a result, the people's equal disenchantment with the military
regime is not showing any signs of translating itself into a willingness to support a mass
movement against the military similar to the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy
(MRD) during the Zia regime in the 1980s.
THE ECONOMIC SITUATION
* There has been a slight improvement in the economic
indicators since Musharraf took over due to bumper wheat and cotton crops. Pakistan, which
had been an importer of wheat till last year to meet its requirements and those of
Afghanistan, is hoping to export this year.
* Pakistan's medium and small-scale industries (leather and
sports goods and carpets) had always been doing well even in the worst of times. The
problem has generally been in respect of the large-scale manufacturing industries, nearly
75 per cent of which are agriculture-related--textiles, sugar and fertilisers. The only
major non-agriculture related industries are cement, automobiles and steel. Its industrial
and export performance is, therefore, largely related to the performance of its
agriculture. The bumper cotton crop this year has resulted in improved textile production
and exports. This has, however, been neutralised by a steep fall in sugarcane and sugar
production. It may have to import sugar this year.
* The main reasons for Pakistan's economic problems are the
poor state of the educational system partly due to the neglect by the State and partly due
to the negative influence of the Mullahs; the tendency of large sections of the population
to avoid paying their taxes and utility (water, electricity and telephones) charges; the
tendency of the business class to avoid paying back the loans taken from the banks;
large-scale corruption and inefficiency in the banking system; the mounting level of
internal and external borrowings by the State to meet even non-development expenditure;
and the failure of successive leaderships to set right this rot.
* Musharraf came to office with promises to cut down
borrowing; to recover the outstanding loans from the defaulters and to increase the tax
revenue by reducing tax evasion through better documentation of the economy and by the
imposition of the sales tax even on retail sales and utility charges. His high-profile
drive against bank defaulters has largely fizzled out, with the State itself slowing down
action due to fears of adverse impact on business morale. The military regime has been
constrained to borrow from the domestic market as freely as the previous political regimes
to meet the essential expenditure. The drive to increase tax revenue has not succeeded.
The drive for better documentation had to be diluted due to opposition from the bazaaris,
supported by the Mullahs. The coalition of the Mullahs, madrasas and bazaaris has
continued to thwart efforts at economic reforms as effectively as they did during the
previous regimes.
* The morale in the economic bureaucracy has always been
low due to the tendency of different regimes to import Pakistani economic experts from the
US and put them on top of the bureaucracy as if the foreign-based experts would have magic
remedies for Pakistan's economic ills. There has been an under-current of resentment in
the economic bureaucracy over Musharraf's action in bringing from Washington Shaukat Aziz,
a Vice-President of the Citibank, and making him the Finance Minister.
* Shaukat Aziz is not really an economic expert. His forte
is his ability as a networker and builder of personal contacts. In the 1990s, the Citibank
went through a financial crisis and Shaukat Aziz, then the Bank's representative in Saudi
Arabia, persuaded a number of Saudi ruling families to come to the Bank's rescue. In
appreciation of his services, the Bank subsequently made him one of the Vice-Presidents.
* Musharraf chose Shaukat Aziz as the Finance Minister
because he thought that the latter, through the advantage of his wide contacts in the IMF
bureaucracy in Washington, would be able to persuade the IMF to resume its assistance to
Pakistan, which has remained suspended since May last year due to differences over
Pakistan's perceived non-performance in implementing the IMF conditionalities such as the
revision of the power tariffs and the tariff contracts with the independent power
producers; better documentation of the economy; vigorous enforcement of the tax on
agriculture at appropriate rates; levy of sales tax on retail sales and utility charges;
and reduction of fiscal deficit. However, Shaukat Aziz has not so far been able to
persuade the IMF to resume assistance.
* As the economy's performance during 1999-2000 shows,
Pakistan can manage, with some difficulty, its economy even without IMF assistance,
provided its international creditors agree to re-schedule its debt and interest payments,
as they did last December on a hint from the US and other Western Governments. Will they
do so next December too? That is the foremost concern of the Musharraf Govt. now.
* Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves, which came down
below US $ one billion during the last months of the Sharif regime, have again gone up to
about US $ 1.2 billion. Despite the continuing trade deficit and the fall in the flow of
foreign investments and remittances from overseas Pakistanis, the State has been able to
maintain the reserves at this level by tapping excess dollar liquidity in the open market.
The State Bank of Pakistan has itself admitted in its periodic reports that it has been
tapping the dollar liquidity from the open market, without explaining wherefrom this
liquidity came at a time of negative flow of foreign money. There is a strong possibility
that these are the earnings of the narcotics smugglers.(Reports received after this was
written indicate that the reserves are again falling)
EXTERNAL RELATIONS
* Pakistan's relations with China continue to be as close
as before and there are reports of US intelligence origin indicating continuing Chinese
assistance to Pakistan in the nuclear and missile fields. The periodic pro forma
expression of US concern over this in its interactions with the Chinese authorities has
not deterred China from continuing its assistance to Pakistan.
* North Korea's assistance to Pakistan in
the missile field is a purely commercial arrangement entered into by a cash and food
hungry North Korean regime and is unrelated to any strategic interests or concerns of
Pyongyang. There are no indications of any stoppage or slow-down of this assistance by
North Korea, due to pressure from the US or Japan or both.
* While the recent visit of the Prime Minister of
Japan, a major benefactor of Pakistan in the past, was viewed with satisfaction by the
military regime as an important step in its efforts at international political
rehabilitation, Tokyo continues to press for formal Pakistani adherence to the CTBT before
resuming assistance under the overseas development programme.
* The visits undertaken by Musharraf to the
principal ASEAN member-countries had as its short-term objective the pressing of
Pakistan's case for upgradation as a full-scale dialogue partner of the ASEAN and for
admission to the ASEAN Regional Forum, which he has not been able to achieve. A
longer-term objective seems to have been to weaken India's chances of securing regional
endorsement for its candidacy for one of the permanent seats in the UN Security Council.
* The desperate need of Colombo for arms
supplies to stem the LTTE advance on Jaffna provided the military regime with a welcome
opportunity to soften its image in Colombo by meeting part of its requirements with
alacrity.
* Musharraf has been able to get over the
initial difficulties in his relations with the Gulf countries, which arose from the fact
that Nawaz Sharif, who started his business career in Dubai, had a large circle of
personal friends in the ruling families of the Gulf.
* There has been an improvement in
Pakistan's relations with Iran, which Musharraf has already visited twice, once
bilaterally and once to attend the periodic summit of the Economic Co-operation
Organisation. His prompt and positive response to Iran's request to re-consider
Islamabad's negative attitude during the Nawaz Sharif regime to the project for an
on-shore gas pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan and the absence of any anti-Shia
incidents in Afghanistan have played a role in this matter. Musharraf and his Foreign
Minister, Abdul Sattar, have been giving the impression of showing greater sensitivity to
Teheran's concerns over Afghanistan than the Benazir and Sharif regimes.
* His highly-publicised visits to Turkey and
Egypt have not brought any political dividends so far. While his appreciative references
to the Turkish model of a modern Islamic State triggered off protests from the Islamic
parties, thereby forcing him to assure them that he had no intention of emulating the
Turkish model, his proposal for seeking the assistance of the Al Azhar University of Cairo
for revamping the curricula of the Pakistani madrasas has so far been a non-starter. The
Pakistani Mullahs do not want to have anything to do with the soft Islam of eitherTurkey
or Egypt.
* While continuing to stress the importance
to Pakistan of Afghanistan remaining under the control of the Taliban regime, he has
avoided hype and high profile on this issue. Assistance to the Taliban has been more
discreet than in the past. While denying that Pakistan has any ability to pressurise the
Taliban to moderate its policies on issues such as women's rights, support to foreign
jehadists and the expulsion of Osama bin Laden, the military regime has claimed to have
persuaded the Taliban to close down two training camps in its territory, one run by the
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and one by the Jaish-e-Mohammed. Its efforts to make the Taliban to
expel from its territory anti-Shia sectarian terrorists of Pakistan such as Riaz Basra of
the Sipah-e-Sahaba, Pakistan, have not yielded any results so far.
* The relations with the Central Asian
Republics (CARs) and Russia have been devoid of warmth because of the activities of
jehadist mercenaries from the Taliban-controlled Afghan territory and Pakistan in
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Dagestan and Chechnya. The Governments of all these
countries have been critical of Pakistan for failing to control the export of jehad from
its territory and from Afghanistan. The relations with Moscow have hit a bad patch
following the Taliban's recognition of the so-called independent Islamic Republic of
Chechnya and the high-profile visit of a representative of this "Republic" to
Pakistan where he was lionised by the JEI and other Islamic organisations. Ultimately,
following repeated expression of displeasure by Moscow, he was asked to leave the country.
* After the initial ostracization of the
military regime, the British Government has shown some signs of a possible re-think in its
policy. Export of defence and law and order enforcement related equipment is again being
approved on a case by case basis. However, the British authorities have not responded
positively to the requests of the military authorities for legal assistance in the
investigation and prosecution of the cases against Altaf Hussain, the leader of the
Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.
* Some of the typical personal traits of
Musharraf-- his readiness to resist foreign pressure on matters considered important to
Pakistani national interests and his willingness to oblige on matters not directly
affecting Pakistan-- have been in evidence in the way he has handled Pakistan's relations
with the US. Immediately after seizing power, his regime, through Foreign Minister Abdul
Sattar, showed signs of flexibility with regard to repeated US requests for an early
signature of the CTBT; but, when there was strong opposition to it from the Islamic
parties, he reversed his stand and declined to sign the CTBT even if that meant continued
denial of economic assistance and of a favourable US stance in the IMF. With alacrity, he
had a Jordanian member of bin Laden's International Islamic Front for Jehad against the US
and Israel arrested and deported from Pakistani territory, but has refrained from
intervening with the Taliban on the US demand for the deportation or expulsion of bin
Laden. He has acted against Arab and other foreign extremists based in Pakistani territory
and threatening the interests of the US and the West Asian countries, but refrained from
similar action against Pakistan-based terrorist groups threatening Indian interests. He
has resisted US pressure for action against the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, which was declared
by the US as a terrorist organisation in October, 1997.
* Musharraf refused to be intimidated by the
strong criticism of Pakistan voiced by Clinton during his visit to Pakistan in March. He
has taken the criticism in his stride and has chosen to wait it out till a new
Administration came to power in Washington in January next. Explaining the USA's
non-declaration of Pakistan as a State-sponsor of international terrorism despite strong
evidence of Pakistani involvement in the sponsorship of terrorism against India, Michael
Sheehan, the Co-ordinator of Counter-Terrorism in the US State Department, told the
Washington correspondent of the "Outlook" (August 21,2000): "In the past,
we have made clear our concerns to the Pakistani Govt. about their links to Kashmiri
organisations, particularly to those (that are) designated terrorist organisations like
the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen…For the HuM, we have asked for the Government of Pakistan to
make sure that they have no links to that organisation. They have assured us that they do
not. We have expressed concerns about terrorists passing through Pakistan. And, Pakistan,
in the past, has co-operated with us on seizing terrorists and sending them back to
justice to the US and other places. Their co-operation has been good and has been
well-documented. On the other hand, we are concerned about those people that pass through
there. We are working with them to make sure they can tighten down on that…..
Pakistan is not a terrorist State. We have some issues with them. They have a record that
needs improving, but they are not hostile to the US. And they co-operate with us on
a lot of issues and it is not appropriate that it be put in a category like that. (Italics
mine). I think Gen. Musharraf understands that the Taliban's policies need to change as
they directly threaten Pakistan's stability. In my view, he understands that and has
communicated that to the Taliban."
Thus, the US policy can be paraphrased as
follows:
1. The question of declaring Pakistan as a
State-sponsor of international terrorism does not arise since it is not hostile to the US
and has been co-operating with the US on terrorism issues affecting US interests.
II. The US has been conveying to Pakistan
its concerns over the activities of Pakistan-based groups threatening Indian interests and
they have assured the US that Pakistan has no official links with them. So long as there
are no such official links, the question of any action against the Govt. of Pakistan does
not arise.
(24-8-00)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt.of India, and, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail:
[email protected])
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