COUNT-DOWN TO INDO-PAK SUMMIT--VI
by B.Raman
The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic
Affairs, Muhammad Hussain Adili, who had recently visited New Delhi, is
expected in Islamabad on July 3 to urge Musharraf to finalise the
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project during his forthcoming summit with
the Indian Prime Minister, Mr.A.B.Vajpayee. For both political and
economic reasons, Iran is stated to be keen that there should be at least
one positive agreement on a substantive issue during the summit and that
this could relate to the pipeline.
The pipeline project has been pending since the days of
Mrs.Benazir Bhutto (1993-96). Under pressure from the Pakistan Army and
the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the Benazir Bhutto and the Nawaz
Sharif Governments had rejected the Iranian proposal to extend the
pipeline to India. The Army and the ISI argued that the extension of
the pipeline to India would strengthen the Indian economy and, hence, this
would not be in Pakistan's national interest.
Iran was not prepared to invest in a pipeline, which
would cater to the Pakistani market only on the ground that the Pakistani
requirements would not provide adequate returns on its investment.
Since capturing power in October, 1999, the very same
Pakistani Army has been keen to have the pipeline extended to India as
that would bring it much-needed foreign exchange to the extent of US $ 600
million per annum as transit fee in addition to concessional supply of gas
to Pakistan by Iran on deferred payment basis. In its anxiety for
early implementation of this project with Indian concurrence, the Army
regime is prepared to treat it as a stand-alone proposal delinking it from
the issue of normalisation of bilateral trade relations.
Interestingly, none of the religious parties, which continue to be opposed
to the normalisation of trade relations till the Kashmir issue is
resolved, has opposed the gas pipeline project being treated as a
stand-alone proposal.
On June 28, Musharraf held consultations with the
following leaders of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and with other
pro-Pakistan Kashmiri leaders based abroad: Patron-in-Chief POK Mass
Movement, and Member of APHC General Council Farida Bahen Jee, Uncle of
Mir Waiz Umar Farooq Mir Waiz Muhammad Ahmed, UK-based Dr. Ayub Thukar,
UK-based Raja Najabat Hussain, USA-based Mohammad Akram Dar, Canada-based
Mushtaq Jeelani, Saudi Arabia-based Nazir Qureshi, Naib Amir
Jammat-e-Islami (JEI) Maulana Ghulam Nabi Nowsheri, POK Prime Minister
Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry, former POK President Maj Gen (Retd.) Muhammad
Hayat Khan, former POK President Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan, former POK
President Sardar Sikandar Hayat Khan, POK PPP leader Sardar Khalid Ibrahim
Khan, Abdul Rashid Turabi, Amir of the POK JEI, POK Liberation League
leader Abdul Majid, APHC POK leaders Muhammad Siddiq Ganai, Mir Tahir
Masood, Faiz Naqshbandi, Altaf Hussain, and Syed Yousaf Nasim, Brig (Retd)
Muhammad Shafi Khan, Prof Nazir Shawl, and Sh Tajammalul Islam . The
party affiliations of the last three are not clear.
Briefing the press later, the Kashmir Affairs Minister
in the Federal Cabinet, Abbas Sarfraz Khan, said that Musharraf made the
following points during this meeting:
* "During my talks with the Indian Prime Minister, I
would call for having a certain framework for the resolution of the
Kashmir problem. I would also urge the Indian leadership that
dialogue must continue under a certain framework." All issues,
including Siachen, could also come up for discussion during the summit.
* "The President said he himself believes that
there cannot be any instant solution for all the problems and that he is
going to India with an open mind and with an effort to create a
conducive environment for future talks."
* The Kashmiri leaders told the President that the
dialogue should not be open ended and that there was a need to have some
timeframe to resolve the issue. They also wanted that the Hurriyat
Conference should also be involved in the talks.
* The Minister said that Pakistan had already asked
India to include the APHC leaders in the talks. "In fact, we
have called for having leaders of both sides of Kashmir to take part in
the forthcoming talks," the Minister added. (Writer's
comment: He did not attribute this to Musharraf). In reply to
questions from the media, the Minister denied that Musharraf had ever
said that he was visiting India to create history.
* No third option was discussed during the President's
meeting with the Kashmiri leaders. "The meeting between the
President and the Indian Prime Minister is a first step to hold a
continued dialogue." Chaudhry Shujaat Husain, former Interior
Minister under Nawaz Shariff, was criticized during the meeting for
advocating the third option.
* In the past, there was no framework for the talks,
nor was there any timetable for the resolution of the Kashmir
problem. But now, efforts would be made by the President to have
some time-bound framework to resolve this issue.
* The President was optimistic about his visit to
India and this was due to various developments that had taken place
during his 18 months in office as the Chief Executive. Now the
President believed that there was a certain realization on the part of
the Indians to resolve their differences with Pakistan.
* Indian rhetoric such as that Kashmir was an integral
part of India had diminished after the Indian Prime Minister had talked
to the President by telephone recently. "This rhetoric exists
on both sides." Kashmir was an unfinished agenda of the partition
that needed to be resolved.
* The Minister was asked whether the Government would
ask the Jihadi groups to stop their activities for some time to ensure
success at the summit. He replied: "We have no access to the
Jihadi groups and we have always maintained that there is an indigenous
movement in occupied Kashmir, and we are only providing them with moral
and political support."
In a separate briefing for the media, some of the
participants from the POK stated as follows:
* They urged Musharraf to adopt a "tough stand"
on the Kashmir issue. They reiterated that the issue should be resolved
in the light of the UN resolutions.
* All the leaders conveyed their reservations over the
advisability of any discussions on the future of the POK and the
Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan).
* Musharraf assured them that though there was no
fixed agenda for the talks, he would focus on the Kashmir issue.
* They called for the inclusion of Kashmiri leaders in
the talks at a later stage. They claimed that bilateralism had
failed to resolve the issue in the past and, hence, the Kashmiri people
should be included in the talks.
* Musharraf should visit the POK before leaving for
New Delhi.
After Musharraf's meeting with the Kashmiri leaders, the
so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir Council (AJKC) held a special session
under the chairmanship of Musharraf and passed the following resolution:
"The Council fully supports the efforts of the Government of Pakistan
for a peaceful solution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute in accordance
with the wishes of its people through all possible means, including a
substantive and meaningful dialogue with India. The Council welcomes
the forthcoming visit of the President of Pakistan to India which offers a
historic opportunity for a resolution of the Kashmir dispute. The
Council notes with satisfaction that in his letter of 28th May, 2001 to
the Indian Prime Minister and in his subsequent statements, the President
of Pakistan has stressed that Kashmir would be the focus of his talks with
Indian leaders. The Council calls upon the Indian Prime Minister to
engage in a substantive, meaningful and result-oriented dialogue with the
President of Pakistan during the forthcoming Summit meeting to settle the
Kashmir dispute in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions.
"
In an interview to the Reuters TV on June 29,Sultan
Mahmood Chaudhry, the so-called Prime Minister of POK , said that he had
suggested to Musharraf that the summit should agree to allow the reunion
of the divided Kashmiri families on both sides of the Line of Control
(LOC) and that he should persuade India to at least withdraw its troops
from big cities in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and shift them to the
cantonments and allow Kashmiri politicians from both sides of the LoC to
discuss the territory's future.
On June 29, Musharraf met the following religious
leaders of Pakistan, who are not connected with any religious or political
parties: Pir Faqir Muhammad Naqeeb ur Rehman, Sajjada Nasheen,
Darbar-e-Aalia Eidgah Sharif, Rawalpindi, Pir Syed Kabeer Ali Shah,
Darbar-e-Aalia Chura Sharif, Sahibzada Syed Iftikhar ul Hasan Gilani,
UchSharif, Khawaja Ata Ullah Taunsvi, Taunsa Sharif, DG Khan, Dewan
Maudood Masood Chishty, Pakpattan Sharif, Pir Syed Daman Shah Jialni,
Thul, Jacobabad; Pir Syed Ashiq Ali ShahJilani, Kot Diji, Khairpur, Pir
Syed Akbar Ali Shah Bukhari, Karachi; Pir Muhammad Fazal ur Rehman
Mujadded, Karachi; Pir Syed Shamshul Amin, Pir of Manki Sharif;, Pir Dr
Khalid Raza, Zakori Sharif; Sahibzada Noor ul Haque Qadri, Darbar Hazrat
Sheikh Gul Qadri, Landi Kotal; Pir Khalid Sultan Qadri, Osta Muhammad; Pir
Muhammad Attiq ur Rehman, POK ,Dr. Syed Mehdi Raza Shah; Sajjada
Nasheen Dargah Hazrat Lal Shahbaz Qalandar.
Musharraf was reported to have told them : " We
would be going to the summit with an open mind. I, my Government as
indeed the people of Pakistan want peace in the region. We want this
region to progress and prosper which was only possible in a tension free
atmosphere. This, however, could be achieved if there was a similar
commitment and reciprocity from the other side. We hope that such a
reciprocity would be forthcoming."
He assured them that Kashmir would form the core issue
of his discussions with the Indian leaders as no progress could be made on
any other issue without removing the major impediment in the relations
between the two countries. He also reportedly assured them that
Pakistan's principled stand for resolving the Kashmir issue according to
the aspirations of the Kashmiri people would not be compromised.
He reportedly said that he would go to the summit with a
clear commitment to discuss the initiation of a process that would lead to
the resolution of the Kashmir dispute.
Dr. Khalid Raza later told pressmen that the Ulema had stressed upon
Musharraf the need for a cautious approach towards India, keeping
Pakistan's national interests supreme and advised him against relegating
the Kashmir issue to a secondary position under the euphoria of
normalization of relations with India. According to him, they
criticised the Nawaz Sharif Government for buying sugar from India when
the latter was suppressing the Kashmiris and for trying to promote
bilateral trade at the cost of the interests of the Kashmiris.
Dr. Raza quoted Musharraf as claiming that but for his intervention, the
Kashmir issue would not have found mention in the Lahore Declaration.
Musharraf also briefed on June 28 a group of foreign
correspondents on the forthcoming summit and the domestic situation.
In a despatch to the "Washington Post", Pamela Constable, its
correspondent, has mentioned the following points relating to the summit
from his briefing:
* He would be "flexible" , but would not allow
the summit to be frittered away on "minor irritants".
The other problems could be solved easily once Kashmir was
resolved. "I am hopeful we will not beat around the bush this
time."
* He was determined to keep his meeting with
Mr.Vajpayee focused on solving the Kashmir issue. The summit would
be a "farce" if it became sidetracked by other issues.
* "There must be an absolute, unequivocal
acceptance of the fact that Kashmir is the issue that has bedeviled our
relations ... We have to resolve it. I would be really
disappointed if we follow the hackneyed path of past bilateral meetings
that have bogged down on other issues."
* He refused to say what specific proposals he would
make to Mr.Vajpayee on how to resolve the Kashmir problem. He
predicted that "if both sides stick to their stated positions too
rigidly, there will be no progress," but that if both are
"sincere and open-minded," the Kashmir issue could be solved
in less than a year. He said he was "cautiously
optimistic" that the summit would be a success.
* He brushed aside questions about whether he would
rein in armed Islamic groups that support fighters in Kashmir, insisting
that the Kashmiri insurgency is "indigenous".
* "The hawks and the doves in Pakistan are all
saying with one voice that I must go and discuss a peaceful resolution
to the Kashmir conflict. It is more India that has a problem of
hawks and doves. I go with my hands strengthened by the people of
Pakistan."
Other foreign correspondents, who attended the briefing,
have reported him as making the following points:
* India should show sincerity in the talks on the Kashmir
issue. Its solution was a prerequisite for peace and stability in
South Asia.
* The two countries should show flexibility to end
their hostilities. "I go with all sincerity and I hope there is
sincerity on their part too.'' He believed that Mr.Vajpayee was sincere,
but he was under pressure from the hard-liners around him. In
Pakistan, religious and other important groups wanted a peaceful,
negotiated settlement.
* "I sense that there is a gradual change toward
a peaceful resolution of this dispute so that peace prevails in the
subcontinent and we concentrate on the economic development of this
region."
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India, and , presently, Director, Institute For
Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: [email protected]
)
